A note from advisory firm Frans Cronje Private Clients says that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.75% at its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting this Thursday, despite inflation easing to the bank’s target level.

Headline inflation declined to 3% in February from 3.5% in January, placing it at the SARB’s target. However, external factors are likely to outweigh domestic inflation dynamics in the bank’s decision.

The recent lead taken by the United States Federal Reserve (which held on rates), ongoing uncertainty around global energy prices, and a stronger dollar are expected to keep the SARB cautious in the near term.

Much global analysis has been pencilling in the effects of elevated oil prices and stronger dollar holding deep into 2026.

As a consequence, the South African bank is likely to hold rates this week.

However, Bheki Mahlobo told The Common Sense, “A potential 50 basis points of cut are still on the table for 2026 – at odds with broader market expectations, which have pushed half of those cuts into 2027.”

That 50-basis-points argument is based on the assessment that there are near-term exits to the Iran conflict that will see both the price of oil and the US dollar retreat. A detailed set of scenarios highlighting some of those exits has been published by The Common Sense.

Yesterday The Common Sense published an editorial urging perspective on the Iran conflict and arguing that both in terms of the dollar and the oil price, the world is not living through a set of freak data occasioned by conflict in the Middle East.